WITH cigarette smoke swirling around him, East Java gubernatorial candidate Soekarwo queried his campaign staff: “What’s the news? Are we still ahead?” He had been monitoring the results broadcast on television, from the garage of his home, located at Jalan Kertajya Indah Timur, in Surabaya.

All eyes were on the television screen. From time to time, a yell from one of the campaign staff could be heard: “Madura is safe. We also won in Tapal Kuda!” About 2 in the afternoon almost all the television channels had indicated Soekarwo was ahead. “Let’s hope it continues that way,” said Pakde as Soekarwo, who is the candidate for the National Mandate Party (PAN), Democrat Party and Justice & Prosperity Party (PKS), is known.

Visitors started coming in as evening fell. Soekarwo’s running mate, Saifullah Yusuf, was the first to arrive, followed by Suyoto, the Regent of Bojonegoro who is also Chairman of PAN in East Java. They too had their eyes glued to the television screen. Soekarwo kept changing channels, until Saifullah protested: “Pakde, don’t keep changing channels. You look nervous.” A round of laughter broke the tension.

A lighter atmosphere reigned at the home of another team of gubernatorial candidates—Khofifah and Mudjiono, at the Deltasari housing complex in Sidoarjo. Yet, the campaign staff of this United Development Party (PPP) was earlier feeling low. They were trailing behind their main competitor, the Soekarwo-Saifullah team. “We haven’t lost yet. Only 1 percent of the votes has been counted,” said a supporter, speaking in the Javanese dialect.

When the running text on screen showed Khofifah pulled ahead of Soekarwo, everyone who sat down spontaneously stood up and cried: “God is Great! Victory!” But when Soekarwo overtook Khofifah, they cried: “Oh my God!” Most of Khofifah’s campaign staffers were members of Fatayat and Muslimat, the autonomous Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) grouping she heads.

According to the quick count, candidates Soekarwo and Khofifah beat out the other three candidates: the teams of Soetjipto-Ridwan Hisjam (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle—PDI-P), Soenarjo-Ali Maschan Moesa (Golkar Party) and Achmady-Suhartono (National Awakening Party—PKB). Yet, the votes won by Soekarwo as well as by Khofifah accounted for less than 30 percent of the vote, so that a second round had to be held.

Ana Lutfi, deputy chief of the Soekarwo-Saifullah campaign team, is convinced the results so far reflected the popular vote. “They are both very well-liked by the people,” she said.

In fact, Soekarwo is quite familiar with the East Java bureaucracy. In 1983, the man born in Madiun on June 16, 1950, became the Surabaya Office of Revenue head. His career took off after that, until he reached the influential position of Secretary of East Java province in 2003.

Saifullah Yusuf became a member of the 1999 House of Representatives (DPR) representing PDI-P. He withdrew from this party and joined the PKB for the 2004 General Elections. During the same year he was appointed State Minister for the Acceleration of Under-Developed Areas. He was dismissed last year, replaced by Lukman Edy.

According to the results of the exit poll taken by the Center for Democratic Studies and the Surabaya Human Rights group, Soekarwo garnered most votes from the nahdliyin or NU members—25 percent. This number far exceeded the votes won by Ali Maschan Moesa, former chairman of the East Java branch of the NU, who got 15 percent of the votes.

Saifullah was reported to have approached some influential kiai (religious leaders), among them, the head of the Salafiyah Syafiyah pesantren (Islamic boarding school) in Situbondo, Kiai Kholil As’ad and head of the Lirboyo, Kediri pesantren, Kiai Idris Marzuki. Kholil actually gave Soekarwo-Saifullah his backing openly, even before the campaigns began. He conveyed his support at a number of events, from weddings to Qur’an reading sessions.

At a farewell function for students of the Darul Ulum Ibtidaiyah Madrasah in Kendit, Situbondo last July 19, Kholil was invited to speak. For some reason, the theme of his speech led to the topic of future leaders. “Pakde Karwo and Gus Ipul (familiar reference to Soekarwo and Saifullah) are good people,” said Kholil, clearly promoting his choice for governor and deputy governor. He went on to quote the hadith on the risks taken by a nation led by a woman, without any reference to Khofifah.

Indeed, in that particular region, the Soekarwo-Saifullah team is quite well-known. Based on the Situbondo KPU (General Elections Commission) quick count, as of Friday last week, this pair won 45.87 percent. The Khofifah-Mudjiono team won 34.96 percent.

Another supporter of the Soekarwo-Saifullah team is Idris Marzuki, who on May 6 went to the Mahiyatul Qurra wal Khuffat pesantren at Wonodadi, Blitar, led by Kiai Masdai Rifai. In front of about 1,000 people, Idris announced that scores of ulama in East Java supported Soekarwo and Saifullah because they were both close.

“That explanation made many ulama to climb down the mountain to be with Soekarwo and Saifullah,” said Idris Marzuki. Then, the two candidates had announced that they would run if they got the backing and the blessings of the kiai. According to the LSI’s quick count, Soekarwo won 26 percent of the votes in Kediri.

It was another story with the Khofifah-Mudjiono team. At the beginning they were at the bottom of popularity scale. Surveys last May registered the pair’s popularity rating to be only 8 percent. But as the election drew closer, a survey held on July 20 registered a sharp rise by Khofifah to 16.6 percent. The quick count predicted they would garner 24 to 25 percent of the votes.

Fauzi, from Khofifah’s campaign team, said that Khofifah gained strength from last May. This was attributed to the strong support from the NU autonomous groups Fatayat and Muslimat. Of course, the support did not come without strings. On July 2, Khofifah donated Rp1 billion and 50 Suzuki UVs to the NU organizing committees throughout East Java. The presentation of the donations was witnessed by NU Chairman, Hasyim Muzadi. Muzadi did not see this as an attempt to influence the nahdliyin or members of the NU community. “This is so that the NU community knows, who would be the most beneficial candidate,” said Muzadi.

Armed with that backing, Khofifah’s team was able to garner considerable support. About 80 percent of people in East Java are NU members. “On top of that NU and PPP organizers agreed that East Java would ideally be led by a cadre of the NU,” said Fauzi. In the exit poll, Khofifah won the most votes from the NU community—28 percent.

Fauzi admitted that Khofifah trailed behind Soekarwo in Madura and a number of precincts in Tapal Kuda. The reason, he said, was because of posters depicting the pair with a cross. According to the LSI quick count, Soekarwo won in Madura with 39.34 percent of the vote, while Khofifah got 26.99 percent.

The official KPU results will be announced this week. But according to the quick counts last week, no candidate has emerged with more than 30 percent. This clearly warrants a second round. “Like a soccer match, this is like the penalty shootout,” said Saifullah Yusuf.